The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A New Global Coupled Atmosphere?Ocean?Sea Ice Prediction System Designed for Daily to Subseasonal Forecasting

This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system developed at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting timescales of days to subseasonal. Two configurations are validated: (1) a low-resolution 16-member ensemble and (2) high-resolution deterministic system. The Navy-ESPC became in August 2020, this is first time NRL partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology Oceanography Center, will provide forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, ocean sea forecasts. A unique aspect that model eddy resolving 1/12° 1/25° configurations. component models current systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) atmosphere, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean (HYCOM) ocean, Community Ice CodE (CICE) ice. Physics updates improve simulation equatorial phenomena, particularly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), were introduced into NAVGEM. configuration evaluated based on analyses from January 2017 2018. forecast skill large-scale such as MJO, North Atlantic (NAO), Antarctic (AAO), other indices, comparable numerical weather (NWP) centers. Ensemble surface temperatures perform better than climatology tropics midlatitudes out 60 days. In addition, Pan-Arctic Pan-Antarctic extent predictions about 45 although dependent season.